En este momento estás viendo Meteorologists turn their sights on the upcoming 2025 hurricane season
Foto / Photo: PL

Meteorologists turn their sights on the upcoming 2025 hurricane season

Climate institutions in the region begin today to monitor atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic and the Caribbean ahead of the arrival of the upcoming cyclonic season which, according to forecasts, will be active.

Although the official start of the cycle is on 1 June, the National Hurricane Centre (CNH) will issue its usual warnings from this day, as has been the case for some years.

For this cycle, which takes up the names of storms formed in 2019, the list will start with Andrea, followed by Barry and Chantal, while Dexter will replace Dorian, as indicated by the World Meteorological Organisation’s rules of discarding the names of events that were catastrophic.

He will be succeeded by Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.

Statistics show that in 2024, 18 depressions and an equal number of storms formed, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, making it a hyperactive cycle.

The most powerful of the hurricanes was Milton, formed in the Gulf of Mexico, which then intensified to become the second Category 5 hurricane of the season, making it the most intense Atlantic hurricane since Wilma in 2005 and Dorian in 2019 by wind speed.

Just a few days ago, the website Wunderground.com, after a seminar with CNH specialists, released some considerations to take into account this season, after what happened in 2024.

They considered that floods caused by cyclones and hurricanes are more dangerous and deadly than wind, causing more deaths.

They also noted that the third highest number of tornadoes was recorded: tropical storms and hurricanes can vary considerably in the number of tornadoes they produce, so this threat is sometimes overlooked.

For specialists, rapid intensification is difficult to forecast, but progress has been made and there were 34 occurrences of development in Atlantic storms last year, almost double the average number in a season.

Meteorologists predict that despite forecasts, unexpected tropical storms and hurricanes can still occur, as was the case with Hurricane Oscar, which hit Grand Turk Island as a Category 1 hurricane less than 24 hours after it was initially declared a tropical storm. A day later, it hit Cuba as a hurricane.

Oscar never had a high probability of development due to the poor signal in the model guidance. Its small size likely played a role in the low development signals, which is another example of the remarkable difficulty in forecasting small storms, they said.

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