Improvements to the electrical system depend fundamentally on reintegrating faulty units and those undergoing extended maintenance, alongside the availability of imported fuel.

Improvement does not mean eliminating blackouts, but rather making them less frequent and shorter. When service is interrupted for extended periods as in recent days, demand multiplies upon restoration in any circuit because household appliances operate simultaneously at higher intensity.

During Monday’s operations, the nighttime peak situation may ease if the faulty Unit 5 at Mariel and Unit 5 at Nuevitas come online as expected, alongside Energás reaching full capacity. This will not prevent blackouts but will reduce them.

According to the National Load Dispatch Centre’s calculations, tonight’s availability could increase slightly to 2055 MW. Distributed generation is also expected to rise, recovering 80 MW with fuel supply. However, this remains insufficient against the high demand of 3585 MW.

Nighttime disruption is estimated to be slightly lower than last night at approximately 1595 MW. This could signal a trend heading into July and August, with the gradual completion of long-term maintenance on Unit 2 at Santa Cruz del Norte, Unit 4 at Cienfuegos, and Unit 5 at Renté.

These and all thermal power plants use domestic crude and do not rely on imports – unlike the fuel oil engines at Moa and Mariel, or the distributed generation units currently limited to delivering 800-1000 MW due to fuel and lubricant shortages.

For midday, disruption is estimated at 1450 MW, slightly mitigated by solar photovoltaic generation. Yesterday, 18 solar parks produced 1720 MWh, peaking at 378 MW (12% of demand at that time) during maximum sunlight hours.