A potential war between the United States and Iran would likely become a prolonged and extremely costly conflict, both in human and strategic terms. While the U.S. possesses clear military superiority in technology and logistics, a quick victory for Washington would be highly improbable.

Iran is no easy target. Its vast territory—covering approximately 1,648,000 square kilometers, slightly larger than the Amazonas state in Brazil—consists of rugged mountains, harsh deserts, and hard-to-reach regions, making a ground invasion nearly suicidal. The Pentagon’s experience in Afghanistan remains fresh in memory: despite overwhelming military power, the U.S. faced immense difficulties in mountainous, politically fragmented terrain.

As a result, Washington would likely avoid deploying ground troops and instead rely on long-range missile and drone strikes. However, this strategy would face clear limitations against Iran’s capacity for asymmetric resistance and retaliation.

One of Iran’s most significant geopolitical advantages is its potential control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. At its narrowest point, the strait is just 39 kilometers wide, separating Iran from Oman and the UAE. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through this route.

A blockade by Tehran would have devastating consequences for the global economy. Oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and Iran itself would be severely disrupted, causing a sharp rise in oil prices. Iran also exports natural gas, copper, wheat, pistachios, saffron, and dates.

Historically, the Strait of Hormuz has been controlled by various empires, including the Persians, Arabs, Portuguese in the 16th century, the British in the 19th and 20th centuries, and more recently, the U.S. Its control remains a persistent geopolitical flashpoint.

Although Iran does not match the U.S. in military sophistication, it has mastered asymmetric warfare tactics and maintains a network of allied militias in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Groups like Hezbollah could target U.S. and allied interests in the region. Additionally, Tehran possesses ballistic missiles capable of striking U.S. bases in the Middle East, as well as Israeli and Saudi cities and strategic installations.

Recent conflicts have demonstrated Iran’s ability to protect its critical infrastructure and carry out unexpected attacks, such as its 2020 missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq following the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani.

Another crucial factor is Iran’s advanced uranium enrichment program, which serves as a deterrent. While Tehran claims its nuclear program is peaceful, many analysts believe it functions as an «insurance policy» against potential foreign attacks.

Politically, a war against Iran would entail significant risks for Washington. The diplomatic cost and lack of substantial international support would make any intervention extremely unpopular. Domestically, it could further strain U.S. political stability, particularly after the failures in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The question remains whether the U.S. is prepared for another prolonged occupation with no guarantee of success.

Furthermore, Russia and China, though not formal allies of Iran, would likely provide diplomatic and economic support, particularly in the UN Security Council. Additional sanctions could further destabilize global markets and threaten energy supplies.

Unlike Iraq in 2003, Iran has a consolidated government, relatively stable state institutions, and a strong sense of nationalism that intensifies under external threats. Even domestic opponents of the regime would likely set aside their differences in the face of foreign invasion, making both military victory and political control difficult to achieve.

While the U.S. could inflict significant damage through airstrikes and naval bombardments, forcing Tehran into unconditional surrender would be highly unlikely. History shows that Western powers often underestimate the resilience of Middle Eastern nations. Given its strategic position and historical experience, Iran may have less to lose than any country that dares to attack it.