The seventh month of the year marks the beginning of increased tropical cyclone activity, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, though storms tend to form more frequently in its northern sector.
A summary by Cuba’s Institute of Meteorology highlights that while the U.S. Atlantic coast sees the most frequent storm movement due to its extensive shoreline, this pattern holds less significance for Cuba.
The report’s authors note that in the Caribbean, with the arrival of tropical waves from the Atlantic, cyclone formation shifts eastward—sometimes even before reaching the Lesser Antilles, the eastern boundary of the Caribbean Sea.
These systems typically follow paths influenced by the average position of the Atlantic Subtropical High. Their trajectories may skim the northern Caribbean or penetrate deeper into the region, occasionally bringing them closer to Cuba.
The unusual cyclone activity observed in June—both in quantity and formation zones—mirrored patterns typically seen in July or August, when storms begin developing much farther east in the latter month.
One limiting factor for Atlantic storms in July is the Saharan Air Layer (commonly known as Saharan Dust), whose dry air suppresses cyclone development from late July through mid-August.
Historical records show six named cyclones (tropical storms or hurricanes) have crossed Cuban territory in July: three tropical storms and three hurricanes.
The tropical storms occurred in 1896 (which later intensified into a hurricane after crossing Cuba), 1901, and 2021 (Elsa, which briefly reached hurricane strength in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico). The three July hurricanes made landfall in 1909 (reaching hurricane status near Cape San Antonio), 1933 (not to be confused with the famed 1933 hurricane that struck western/central Cuba in August-September), and 2005 (Hurricane Dennis), ending a 70-year drought of July hurricane impacts.
A trajectory map reveals that while most systems appear headed for western Cuba, some have passed remarkably close to the eastern provinces.
